Opinion poll: BJP is all set to gain in Uttar Pradesh

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PM Narendra Modi speaks at a rally in Lucknow
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06 January, 2017

This is about 30 seats more than the number thrown up in the first UP opinion poll done by Axis My India in October.

He added that they will strictly block vote solicitation through illegal incentives such as money, cash, liquor, or gifts, and also fight the use of paid news articles to benefit one party or another, a common practice during Indian elections.

"Now, they want to get rid of this family feud", he said. Punjab - an agricultural state of about 27 million people - will go to the polls on February 4 while three other states will also vote in this phase. Vote counting will take place on March 11 in all five states.

The ruling Samajwadi Party (in its current avatar) is projected to emerge as the second largest party, bagging between 92-97 seats.

Mayawati's party is likely to bag 79-85 seats, down from 115-124 predicted by the previous survey.

The survey also stated that voters felt that Akhilesh's performance as UP CM was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

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A decade later, the party's appeal among non-Dalits appears limited.

The India Today-Axis Opinion Poll predicts a stunning comeback for Congress in Punjab with and gives the Sonia Gandhi-led party 56-62 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly.

Sanjay Kumar, professor and director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and Deputy Director of Lokniti, joins The Quint for a Facebook Live to talk about the Uttar Pradesh elections and its political ramifications. The reason behind the BSP's decline seems to be its inability to get incremental voters beyond its traditional Dalit vote bank.

The BJP is desperate to end its 14-year exile from power in India's most populous state.

In 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP had a 15 percent vote share. Not many RSS and BJP supporters are with him. The law and order situation in Manipur had been the key focus of the meeting. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. If BJP has to be defeated then all the secular forces will have to come together. This was before the split in the SP.

'Minorities could once again swing towards BSP or pick the Akhilesh and Congress alliance. Politicians join Rajdeep to discuss the implications of the India Today Opinion Poll findings.


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