Greenback on the defensive, gold rises

Mar192017ed1
US Dollar Bonds 10 Year Yield
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22 March, 2017

Gold rallied in the wake of last Wednesday's less hawkish than expected Fed policy statement, which dampened speculation that the United States central bank would raise interest rates quickly this year. The tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq Composite index briefly bucked the trend and hit a record intraday peak of 5,915.120 before edging lower.

"The dovish rate hike, as it turned out to be, triggered short-covering and gold returned to relative safety above 1,221 an ounce", said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

Although Trump promised in early February to deliver a "phenomenal" tax plan within a few weeks, no such details have been released yet, with many investors now waiting for detailed budget plan expected in mid-May.

This might seem daunting, at first, but NerdWallet mortgage analyst Tim Manni confides: "For consumers now shopping for a mortgage to purchase a property or refinance an existing loan, shouldn't feel like a real shock to the system since the rate move has already been "baked" into the market".

Sterling rebounded to US$1.2360 after it weakened on news that the British government will officially begin the process to leave the European Union on March 29.

Last week, the Fed left its projections for the pace of interest-rate hikes over the coming year essentially unchanged. "The market is again betting on an increase in the number of interest rate rises this year".

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They continued lower over the past two days as congressional Republicans have struggled to secure the support necessary for President Donald Trump's proposed health-care overhaul bill to make it out of the House of Representatives. The index is a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

"At the moment, worries about the election have subsided a bit after the Dutch elections". As I gain more confidence in the outlook I could support three total this year.

The spectre of slower US rate hikes has been helping high-yielding currencies.

The Australian dollar is well supported today with the Aussie trading to the highest level against the USA dollar since early November. "But the currency has strengthened since the Fed tightened policy and is edging further away from where we think the RBA views the sweet spot" in the low 70s.

Others are forecasting the price to range between 1,175 - 1,375 this year.

Oil prices fell as investors continued to unwind bets on higher prices because of concerns that growing U.S. oil output could hamper an Opec-led deal on production reductions.


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