08 March, 2017
"The economic nationalism is a much bigger wildcard because we don't know how the language translates into policy at this point", OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann told Reuters.
The modest pick-up in global growth in 2017-18 reflects the effect of ongoing and projected fiscal initiatives, notably in China and the United States, and initiatives in other economies such as Canada, the report says.
The Economic Outlook report projected the USA economy to grow by one percentage point to 2.4 percent this year on strong domestic demand.
However, it warned that the "projected modest upturn" could be derailed by a number of factors, including the possibility of a downturn in markets, greater barriers to trade set up by governments, and uncertainties about the path of interest rates around the world.
The strength of financial market valuations appears disconnected to the outlook for the real economy, where the growth of consumption and investment remains subdued, and there is a risk of global financial market tensions as interest rates adjust and diverge across the major economies.
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The U.S. and Canada are likely to outperform major global economies in the next two years, a prominent Paris-based think tank said Tuesday, even as it cautioned that soaring stock markets may be overestimating the pace of near-term growth. Now, more than ever, governments need to take actions that restore people's confidence while at the same time resisting turning inwards or rolling back numerous advances that have been achieved through greater worldwide co-operation'. However, it was forced to acknowledge better recent growth than expected, with GDP expanding a year ago by 1.8 per cent.
Next year, the US economy is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent and Canada's is expected to expand by 2.2 per cent, ahead of the other G7 countries.
The global GDP forecast from the OECD is 3.3 per cent, which is higher than the 3 per cent of 2016. But the forecast for 2018 was cut to 2.8 percent from 3.0 percent. The forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 1%.
In China, growth is projected to slop to 6.5% this year and down again to 6.3% next year as the Chinese economy transitions from external demand and heavy industry towards domestic consumption and services. Coherent and committed policy action is needed to simultaneously raise growth rates and improve inclusiveness'.
The organization said fiscal policy should be used to boost demand, especially if coupled with structural reform.