12 May, 2017
EU officials said the eurozone's recovery from the global financial crisis of 2007-08 faced threats, such as negotiations over Britain's exit from the EU, China's economic adjustment and potential protectionist measures from U.S. President Donald Trump. "China's economic adjustment, the health of the banking sector in Europe and the upcoming negotiations with the United Kingdom on the country's exit from the European Union are also considered as possible downside risks in the forecast".
The European Commission on Thursday raised its forecast for Polish economic growth from 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent for 2017, and from 3.1 percent to 3.2 percent in 2018. The commission cut its inflation projections and sees consumer-price growth of just 1.3 percent in 2018, well below the ECB's goal.
The forecasts, published three times a year, confirm all euro zone countries will grow this year and next, with Germany, the bloc's largest economy, accelerating to 1.9 percent in 2018, and Spain and Portugal expanding more than previously expected.
"It is good news too that the high uncertainty that has characterized the past twelve months may be starting to ease".
"Europe is entering its fifth consecutive year of growth", EU Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said. The EC's "spring predicitions" also include an increase in GDP growth, to 2.7%, which is even higher than the government's forecast.
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Looking at what could drive further growth, the Commission also mentioned the launch of the Malta Development Bank, saying it could provide an additional boost to investment.
The Commission said that improving labour market conditions are expected to support domestic demand over the next two years.
While noting that the pound can not expect any immediate support from higher interest rates, analysts also detected a slightly more aggressive tone on future rate hikes from the central bank. The first: Political uncertainty.
"The decision to increase the minimum wage may support private consumption further, although the impact on GDP growth could be offset by higher costs for employers", it added when analysing the possible risks.