Oil Slides as US Climate Withdrawal Compounds Glut Concerns

Start of U.S. driving season supports oil, but oversupply worries fester
Oil falls as rising Libyan, US output undermines cuts
Author

10 June, 2017

Oil regained some ground on Thursday following upbeat data from an industry group that USA crude inventories fell sharply last week.

He added that the move could complicate the market outlook in a way that "would not be favorable to oil prices". Guidance from publicly-listed shale producers for 2017 points to a 60% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure and an 18% year-on-year rise in production, according to a PIRA report.

"Oil prices dropped below 50 this morning as [the] continued global oil glut seems to outweigh bullish US oil inventory reports and Trump exiting the 2015 Paris climate agreement", said Michael Poulsen, oil risk manager at Global Risk Management.

Brent crude futures for July LCOc1 LCON7 were down $1.61, or 3.1 percent, at $50.23 a barrel by 2:09 p.m. EDT (1809 GMT) after falling as low as $49.81 on their last day as the front-month.

Reuters reported that Libya's oil production was at 784,000 barrels per day (bpd) because of a technical issue at the Sharara field, but was expected to start rising to 800,000 bpd yesterday, the chief of the state-run National Oil Corporation said.

Opec crude production rose in May led by gains from Libya and Nigeria, countries that are exempt from the deal to cut output in a bid to revive oil prices.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down $1.30, or 2.6 percent, at $48.36 per barrel, after falling as low as $47.73.

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Oil headed for its biggest weekly drop in four weeks as US supply data signaled that OPEC's efforts to re-balance oversupplied markets need more time. Should this consensus prove to be correct then it will provide considerable support for the Oil bears and will likely damage the CAD and NOK further despite some solid data releases.

In Libya, the state oil firm said output had reached 827,000 bpd on Wednesday, around levels last seen in 2014.

"The lack of moderation in US production is undercutting OPEC efforts to manage the market", said Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Meanwhile compliance with the OPEC-led deal remained high among the group's members, with industry sources saying that Russian figures for May also show output in line with its pledge.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed crude inventories were down by 8.7 million barrels at 513.2 million in the week to May 26.

The selloff in oil prices sustained during the later hours of the USA session yesterday continued on Friday, as investors mulled over the prospect of a ramp-up in US output after Trump announced that the U.S.is withdrawing from the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

"If OPEC wants to keep the market balanced next year, they will probably need to extend the production cut to all of 2018", Martijn Rats, managing director at Morgan Stanley in London, said by email.


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