Eyes Turn to Difficult-to-Predict Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose weakens to barely Category 1 status
Eyes Turn to Difficult-to-Predict Hurricane Jose
Author

13 September, 2017

Latest forecast models are struggling to track the hurricane's exact path, but the tail-end of the storm could bring some unstable conditions to the United Kingdom in about 10 days time.

Forecast models agree the storm will turn toward the east coast of the United States, but longer term forecasts are less definitive.

Such a path is concerning in the wake of Hurricane Irma, which has altered the beach landscape and made it more vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding. It was one of four hurricanes to hit the Sunshine State that year. Unlike other hurricanes in this part of the Atlantic Ocean, which tend to race out to sea, meteorologists expect that Jose will make a tight clockwise loop in the open waters over the three days, during which it will not affect any land areas.

"Over the coming days, Jose will do a big loop roughly between Bermuda and the Bahamas", Haney said.

A westward motion is the result of a ridge of high pressure to the north and then east of the storm.

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"Since the future track of Jose is highly uncertain, we encourage you to pay attention to our forecast updates throughout the week on-air, online, on our app, and through social media", he said.

Most of the long-term models beyond September 18 have the storm heading out to sea instead of heading west. As of Tuesday morning, Jose was a low-end Category 1, and could weaken further into a tropical storm. But forecasters warn that long-term forecasts are often off by hundreds of miles. Still, the cone of uncertainty comes uncomfortably close, within 200 miles of Florida and 50 miles from the Bahamas.

The forecast for Tuesday has a "high risk" for rip currents along the DE and Jersey beaches, and sees a "moderate to potentially high risk of rip currents through the weekend".

It was a category 1 hurricane. "Jose was nearly up to a Cat 5 at one point, so that brought up some pretty cool water and I'm all for storms double backing and weakening". It will likely dissipate from Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center said. If history is a guide, more will be on the way. We'll have to wait and see what's in store as we move past the peak of the hurricane season. But hurricanes into November and even December are not unheard of.


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