International Monetary Fund raises Italy growth forecasts

International Monetary Fund releases quarterly update of global economic outlook
International Monetary Fund raises Italy growth forecasts
Author

23 January, 2018

The global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 per cent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and half percentage point higher than in 2016, it noted. "But political leaders and policy makers must stay mindful that the present economic momentum reflects a confluence of factors that is unlikely to last for long", he said, arguing that Donald Trump's tax cuts were likely to only provide a short-term boost to growth. The IMF said growth in 2017 picked up in 120 economies that together account for about 75% of global GDP. Notably, with a growth rate of 7.

A stronger USA economy will also boost the economies of America's trading partners, especially Mexico and Canada.

The worldwide lending agency says 120 countries, representing three-quarters of world economic output, enjoyed economic growth in 2017, creating the broadest global expansion in seven years.

Donald Trump's U.S. tax cuts will help lift global growth further over the next few years though the United Kingdom looks set to trail behind, according to latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Fund's World Economic Outlook Update released in Davos gave a rosier estimate for the current year than the Indian government's. "This is partly because we estimate that potential global growth is now slightly below 3%, whereas actual growth in 2017 and 2018 will average 3.5%". But China's growth is forecast to slow to 6.6 percent this year and 6.4 percent in 2019.

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"High-frequency hard data and sentiment indicators point to a continuation of strong momentum in the fourth quarter".

The IMF said even though the economic "rebound could prove stronger in the near term", the risks to the global forecast remain tilted to the downside. On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other, the report said.

As major stock markets worldwide have been on the upswing, with repeated records set on Wall Street, the report warned that "rich asset valuations. raise the possibility of a financial market correction, which could dampen growth and confidence". Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery.

But the Fund also said Italy's March general election posed a risk to structural reforms. In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative. Beijing is attempting to move the economy away from fast but unsustainable growth based on massive investment to slower, steadier growth built around consumer spending. Markets expect prices to gradually decline over the next 4-5 years.

"Even as economies return to full employment, inflation pressures remain contained and nominal wage growth is subdued".


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